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China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment in CEE Countries--Based on Gravity Analysis
Xiong, Xiaoyi ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Li, Yating (referee) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
Over the past decade, economic and trade co-operation between China and Central and Eastern European countries has developed at a high rate. In the year of 2022, China has developed into an important trading partner with most CEE countries in terms of the ranking and share of total trade volume. However, problems such as trade surpluses and economic downturns in the post-pandemic era have made future cooperation between China and CEE countries facing a lot of new challenges. Based on the panel data of China and 16 selected countries in Central and Eastern European region from 2012 to 2021, this paper conducts empirical analyses and uses the extended gravity model to figure out the influencing factors of China's OFDI towards CEE countries. In addition, this paper also calculates the efficiency of China's OFDI based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model and finally give suggestions for the future.
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The Belt and Road - Is China moving towards the centre of international trade? Assessment of impact on Balkans and Central Europe using network and gravity analysis
Reinštein, Jakub ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a potentially world-changing Chinese economic and geopolitical strategy. In this thesis Gravity Model of Trade (GMT) and Network analysis are employed to assess the relative position of China in the International Trade Network (ITN), the overall impact of BRI, and its effect on countries in Central Eastern Europe and Western Balkans grouped in 17+1 mechanism. The results from Network analysis indicate that since the 1990s China is gradually moving towards the center of ITN. Subnetwork of BRI countries also exhibits higher cohesion and resilience to external shocks than ITN. GMT identified BRI as a significant and positive factor influencing exports, however in case of 17+1 mechanism countries the results are not robust. GMT was also successfully experimentally augmented with Network analysis variables demonstrating its possible enhancements and showing the path for further research. JEL Classification C23, C51, E27, F14 Keywords Gravity Model of Trade, Network Analysis, Belt and Road Initiative, 17+1 Mechanism Title The Belt and Road - Is China moving towards the center of international trade? Assessment of impact on Balkans and Central Europe using network and gravity analysis
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Assessing the Impact of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas on Foreign Trade: the EU-Georgia, EU-Moldova, and EU-Ukraine DCFTAs
Cai, Yaqi ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Akdogan, Idil (referee) ; Svoboda, Karel (referee)
Assessing the Impact of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas on Foreign Trade: the EU-Georgia, EU-Moldova, and EU-Ukraine DCFTAs Abstract The Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTAs) are three free trade areas established between the EU and Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, respectively. This paper provides the estimates on the effects of the DCFTAs on foreign trade. Using gravity model on a sample of 178 countries during 2002-2019, we obtain the following results. First, the DCFTAs have significantly enhanced the trade between the EU and three countries, and also facilitated the exports of other countries to the EU and three countries, while the exports of the opposite direction have been restrained by the DCFTAs. Second, the positive influence of the DCFTA on the trade with the EU is significant for Ukraine, and not significant for Georgia and Moldova. Third, in terms of the Central European countries, the DCFTAs have promoted the trade with three countries for Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia, whereas the positive effect is not significant in cases of Austria, Germany, and Poland. For Slovenia, the impact is also insignificant but negative. Fourth, the full implementation of the DCFTAs has additional contribution to the trade between three countries and Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia....
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Impacts of Brexit referendum on European banks: evidence from Country-by-Country Reporting
Moravec, Petr ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
1 Abstract In the negotiation period of Brexit in the years 2016-2019, banks in the UK had to plan their activity based on the expectation of whether they would have passporting rights in the future or not. The referendum's consequences may foreshadow what the actual Brexit will entail. This master thesis investigates the impact of the Brexit referendum in 2016 on the banking activity of the 45 largest European banks during the negotiation period. I use gravity analysis for inter-country transactions, and a brand-new "Synthetic Difference in Differences", together with Synthetic Control and standard Difference in Differences, for intra-country transactions. Although all of these methods were used in the literature in the context of the Brexit referendum, the Country-by-Country Reporting (CbCR) dataset that I use has not yet been used in such a context. I use turnover reported in CbCR by European banks as a proxy for banking activity in the years 2013-2019 and, thus, have four pre-treatment years (i.e., 2013-2016) and three post- treatment years (i.e., 2017-2019). Using the gravity model, I discovered empirical evidence that banks reported lower turnover since the Brexit referendum in their partner countries by between 14.5% and 44.6% relative to their domestic country. Yet, banks that have British...
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Modeling spatial interactions on the example of the regional cities
Zelenka, Jaroslav ; Marada, Miroslav (advisor) ; Chmelík, Jakub (referee)
Management and planning of transportation is becoming more important in terms of continuously growing intensity of spatial interactions, which are still mostly realized through transport networks. That's why we can deal with this specific problem of transportation geography using for example spatial interactions modeling. The general aim of the thesis is modeling of spatial interactions and their subsequent comparison with real flows by using calibration in order to predicate the future value of flows taking the planned changes in the transport network in consideration. The main tool used to achieve the goal of the thesis is the gravity model which was applied on the example of regional capitals in the Czech Republic. Based on accomplishments we may say, that centers with lower significance of monitored relations are characterized by further location towards most centers, small number of inhabitants, low intensity of model interactions and lower values of transport intensities with neighboring centers. With the center growth itself, its range of interactions with other centers grows as well. Key Words: spatial interactions modeling, gravity model, model interaction, transport intensity, regional capitals
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Does Aid Lead to More Trade? Evidence of the Effect of US Aid on its Exports
Schütz, Anna ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This thesis investigates the effect of US development aid on US exports to 134 recipient countries over the time period 1993 to 2015 with an application of the gravity model of international trade. Estimates of one-way panel dataset, specified by a dummy approach and estimated with OLS and PPML, suggest that for every aid dollar spent by the United States, US exports significantly increase by 1.59 US dollar. By lagging the aid variable for several years after disbursement, we find a declining effect of US aid on US exports, which indicates that tied aid is an important channel of the effect's magnitude. The effect does not vary systematically across income groups. Yet for geographical regions with a higher US export share, the impact of US aid on US exports is significantly larger suggesting that existing trading relations contribute to a larger effect of aid on donor's exports. The evidence shows that US aid increases US exports and reinforces economic relations with recipient countries and, thus, can be regarded as an important motive for the donor to provide development aid.
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China's One Belt and One Road Initiative and its potential for the tourism industries in Africa, Asia and Europe: a gravity model approach
Jannaschk-Schmitz, Patrick ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
In 2013, China presented the idea of the infrastructure project One Belt One Road. The thesis aims to analyse the potential effects of the initiative, and how its attempt to improve transport infrastructure will impact EU-tourist flows to participating countries. A closer look to the effects on the tourism industry is justified because of the importance of the touristic sector for the global economy. For instance, the direct contribution of the touristic sector accounted for 2.3 trillion USD worldwide in 2016. A gravity model approach is used in the following paper to examine the significance of road, railway, air service as well as port infrastructure for tourists from the European Union. Afterwards, an OBOR simulation is carried out that forecasts a potential change for EU-tourist inflows. The results go in line with previous gravity model studies regarding the positive relationship of the GDP and the inverse influence of the distance on tourism flows. Furthermore, the findings suggest a significant impact of well-developed road, railway and air service networks. However, the quality of ports did not meet the expectations and is somewhat contra productive for the decision making of EU tourists. The simulation for the improvement of transport infrastructure implies that countries with an under-...
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Observing the Effects of CAFTA on Trade Using the Gravity Model of Trade
Škreb, Jan ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This thesis aims to analyse the effects of the Central America Free Trade Agreement on trade using the gravity model. The principal actors of interest are the United States of America and Central American countries combined with Dominican Republic as the other regional actor. Panel data was used with 153 countries for the period of 1995-2015. The model was specified using the dummy approach and estimated with OLS and PPML estimators to obtain results on effects of trade policy variables on exports. Estimates show mixed results but the general effect of CAFTA on exports is positive and significant. This trade creation effect makes CAFTA an important trade agreement for economic relations between member countries.
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